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OhauitiWeather

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NZ's weather pattern shifting a bit more 'spring-like' as we head towards Christmas

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Wed, 13/12/2017 - 11:58

The weather pattern around New Zealand is changing a little and that means more variety in the weather. The main change is a lack of high pressure to the east of the country - this will allow inland downpours to drift further east and allow air flows from the south to also move in easier across the South Island.

Over the next 10 days WeatherWatch.co.nz expects a number of daytime downpours and overnight drizzle patches which will bring some relief to dry parts of New Zealand - despite the overall trend still being average to drier than average.

Long range data suggests western areas of both islands may be drier than usual over the next week, while eastern areas do get better totals back to normal in some spots.

It's possible the Gisborne area may even be a bit wetter than usual for this time of year over the next seven days.

As we head towards Christmas a more "spring-like" pattern may emerge. While it doesn't mean a return to serious spring weather it may just be a timely reminder that the true part of summer is really January and February and this is a shift more towards average (but will still likely be warmer than average in many places overall).

Northern New Zealand is unlikely to be affected too much by this shift in the weather pattern but from Wellington southwards many will notice varying wind flows and therefore a mixture of temperatures and windier days too with the Southern Ocean becoming a bit more active weather-wise.

Southland has quite a variety of temperatures. Over the next 10 days two days have highs in the low teens, while two others make it into the low 20s.

Further north and Queenstown today has a high of just 15 degrees but may be closer to the late 20s by Saturday, then a high of just 14 degrees next Tuesday with some wet weather.

Canterbury is also in the mix for a more spring-like pattern leading up to Christmas. Today's high is around 19 or 20, then closer to 30 from Friday to Sunday before tumbling back to highs in the teens next week.

Wellington will also experience a more "spring-like" pattern with daytime highs bouncing around from as low as 18 to as high as 26. Wellington looks mostly dry though. But if you head further north then expect the summer pattern to continue rolling through with no significant changes in temperatures coming for most North Island centres. If a westerly flow kicks in next week that may drop some temperatures in the west and inland by a degree or two but places like Auckland, Tauranga, Hamilton, Napier, Gisborne and Whangarei are all likely to be in the mid 20s still. However the North Island has plenty of downpour risks on Sunday and Monday.

The change in weather pattern will mean a few more downpours (mainly inland) but the general trend is still drier than average for NZ (see the map below).

WeatherWatch.co.nz has been saying since September that summer may well have areas of "big dry" that form but also an increased risk of inland heavy downpours and even isolated flash flooding. This coming Sunday and Monday there may be some very heavy downpours inland, across both islands. There's also a chance of severe thunderstorms for some too - but it's too far out to lock in just yet.

As for Christmas to New Year's Eve, that is just too far out to lock in but there are some signs of the westerlies dominating then and perhaps some rain around the West Coast. We'll keep you posted!

Follow this link to view maps: http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/nzs-weather-pattern-shifting-...

- Image and data courtesy of the US Government
- Link to original WeatherWatch post http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/nzs-weather-pattern-shifting-...

Posted on December 13, 2017 at 12:25 PM

Wednesday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Wed, 13/12/2017 - 04:00

A south to southwesterly airflow lies over New Zealand today, this pushes in some cooler and showery weather to eastern regions although some in the west may see some shower activity also.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Sunny spells, risk of an isolated shower in the afternoon, especially about the Waikato and inland Bay Of Plenty otherwise mainly dry. Southwesterly winds.
Highs: 24-26

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Mostly cloudy, showers developing late morning. Northwesterly winds change southwest in the afternoon then southeast at night with showers clearing away.
Highs: 20-23

Eastern North Island
Morning sun, southerly winds freshen in the afternoon bringing increasing cloud then rain, easing overnight.
Highs: 21-26

Wellington
Cloudy areas with southerly winds picking up in the morning, may be a shower mainly later in the day.
High: 20

Marlborough & Nelson
Sunny spells, a few showers from late afternoon or evening as southeasterly winds freshen.
Highs: 22-24

Canterbury
Cloudy areas with a shower or two, inland areas may receive slightly heavier areas of precipitation meanwhile nearer the coast conditions may dry out a little. East to southeasterly winds.
Highs: 16-19

West Coast
An area of showers about Fiordland spreads northwards reaching North Westland late afternoon or evening. Sunny spells before showers move in. Winds from the west tending southwest later in the day.
Highs: 16-20

Southland & Otago
Mostly cloudy for Southland with a few showers, more likely in the morning then gradually becoming drier as the day moves along. Otago may see showers right through till evening then starting to clear. South to southeasterly winds.
Highs: 14-18

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/wednesdays-national-forecast-...

Posted on December 13, 2017 at 12:03 PM

Sydney's west forecast to exceed 40C on Thursday

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Tue, 12/12/2017 - 13:00

Summer started out on a cool note for much of southern Australia, although a countrywide heat wave will send temperatures soaring this week.

Many areas in southern and southeastern Australia experienced a notably mild start to summer this year.

The temperature in Adelaide only reached as high as 24 degrees during the first nine days of the season. This was the city's coolest nine day spell during December since 1993 and the coolest first nine days of summer since 1909.

Melbourne experienced its coolest start to summer in 16 years, with the first 10 days of December all staying below 24 degrees.

The average maximum temperature in Canberra was just 22.7 degrees during the first 10 days of summer, which is well below the city's average December mximum of 26.2 degrees.

Hobart's average maximum temperature for the first nine days of December was 18.2 degrees, two below average for this time of year. This spell included a 12.9 degree day, which was Hobart's coldest December day in eight years.

After a notably cool start to the season, the first heatwave of summer will sweep across southern and eastern Australia this week.

A pool of hot air sitting over Western Australia started spreading over South Australia on Sunday and will continue to extend further east in the next few days.

Adelaide's top of 29.5 degrees at Kent Town on Sunday was four degrees warmer than any day so far this month and the city should reach 30-38 degrees between Monday and
Wednesday.

Days and nights will become noticeably warmer in parts of Tasmania, Victoria, NSW, the ACT and Queensland during the coming days as well.

Melbourne's forecast top of 36 degrees on Wednesday would be 12 degrees warmer than any other day so far this month and the city's hottest day since February.

Tasmania should register its first 30 degree day of the season on Wednesday, while Hobart's maximums are forecast to climb five to 10 degrees above average between Tuesday and Thursday.

While parts of southern Australia will experience some uncomfortably high temperatures this week, the impending heat will be more persistent further north.

Canberra is forecast to reach the low to mid thirties for the next seven days, giving the city an average maximum temperature of around 32 degrees during the next week. This is close to 10 degrees warmer than the opening nine days of summer.

Severe heatwave conditions are forecast to affect parts of NSW, northeastern SA and south west Queensland from Tuesday onwards, where some outback will experience oppressive heat.

Thargomindah is forecast to average at least 35 degrees for three consecutive days and nights from Thursday.

Parts of western Sydney could have their hottest December spell in more than a decade this week. Richmond is forecast to reach 35 degrees or more between Wednesday and Saturday, which would be its warmest four day spell during December since 2005. The hottest day will be on Thursday, when the city could reach the mid thirties and western suburbs should exceed 40 degrees.

A cool change will reach SA on Wednesday and parts of southeastern Australia by Thursday, although it won't penetrate into central and northern NSW and Queensland until early next week.

- Image / Sydney, WeatherWatch.co.nz
- By Ben Domensino, Weatherzone
- WeatherWatch Link: http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/sydneys-west-forecast-exceed-...

Posted on December 12, 2017 at 1:25 PM

Droughts are not 'declared' - so what makes a drought 'Official'?

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Tue, 12/12/2017 - 08:38

WeatherWatch.co.nz head forecaster Philip Duncan speaks with the Ministry for Primary Industries to make sense of it all.
==========================================================================================
Parts of New Zealand are very dry now, which is concerning many farmers and growers up and down the country with many asking us if we are going into a drought.

But what actually is a drought and who decides if we are in one?

The process may not be quite what you think:
It’s a myth that the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) “declares a drought”. In fact, the Government doesn’t declare a drought is present just like they don’t declare a river is flooded, or that there is snow on a mountain. However the Government may provide recovery assistance if it is requested, when it meets the criteria under the Primary Sector Recovery Policy.

A drought should be acknowledged locally, well before the point State assistance is required to help recover from the ongoing impacts.

Forget the term “drought declaration” - it’s an incorrect term. Instead, local authorities in the dry region(s) itself acknowledging a drought has formed. Kind of like admitting you have a problem - sometimes that first step of admitting it is the hardest. This “acknowledgement" can come from a number of parties, but the ideal ones are either your local/regional council, and/or from NIWA. If either NIWA or Council acknowledge there is a drought this is in effect ‘declaring there is a drought’.

When the community cannot cope with the drought (or any other adverse event) and need help, a request is presented to MPI - and MPI advise their Minister and the Government on the level of assistance that should be provided.

MPI uses a framework to classify the impact of adverse events as either localised, medium-scale, or large-scale. They consider things like mitigation options, physical impacts, social impacts, and economic impacts. Recovery measures are only provided in medium or large scale events.

The word “acknowledge” is key to droughts. It basically means we have to be honest about whether a drought has formed - and if so, is it severe enough that the State needs to step in and help communities recover. We also need to build resilience in our communities to manage through these types of adverse events, as best we can.

Having a drought acknowledged in a region doesn’t instantly help a farmer financially, but it can provide the right support networks for them. Remember being in a drought isn’t just financial, it’s the personal and emotional stresses you are put through too - and sometimes this is the biggest part of coping with a drought.

It’s very important to know that if you already need help you do not need a Drought to be in place, you can already reach out for help from the Government - it does not need any local authorities to officially say anything. Talk to your farm advisor, banker, industry body representatives, and your local Rural Support Trust.

Some farmers and Council don’t like to acknowledge a drought either - for a variety of reasons, some as basic as a belief that the State shouldn’t help out unless truly dire. A crisis, in other words. Some even see it as a sign of weakness to ask for help.

A medium-scale adverse event classification and the provision of recovery measures only occur after the impacts of an event are beyond the ability for the community to cope - a bit like a Civil Defence emergency happens after a tropical storm hits, rather than before it arrives. It really is the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff there to help.

We thank MPI for better explaining the process for us to share with the New Zealand public.

As for "Are we going into a drought this summer?" which we have been asked quite a bit lately, WeatherWatch.co.nz says it's still too early to know with some rain makers brushing the edges of New Zealand over the next 10 days there will be some relief, but one month of exceptionally dry weather isn't long enough. In New Zealand our weather can change quickly (just look how we transitioned from the extra wet winter to an extra dry late spring). With warmer waters around the country there is a GOOD chance of rain makers forming in the New Zealand area - BUT - the block of high pressure does need to break up first - if that happened it's possible we could transition back to being very wet again. Hopefully we find the right balance this summer and end up getting relief everywhere, however long term trends do suggest some parts of New Zealand may kick off January 2018 on a much drier than usual note and we maintain "pockets of droughts" are possible around the nation. We'll keep you posted on how things are shaping up.

For more information on Dealing with Drought Conditions please click/tap here to read more via MPI's website.

- By Philip Duncan, WeatherWatch.co.nz (with advice from the Ministry for Primary Industries) http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/droughts-are-not-declared-so-... Droughts are not 'declared' - so what makes a drought 'Official'?

Posted on December 12, 2017 at 1:09 PM

Next two weeks: More hot & dry but an increase in wet weather for some areas

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Tue, 12/12/2017 - 11:58

There's no hiding from the fact it's incredibly dry in parts of the country but over the second half of December there will be a bit more 'life' in the weather maps.

Since November high pressure has mainly dominated in the New Zealand area with little movement and little change in wind flows.

The second half of December shows these highs moving around much more - this allows wind directions to shift, air flows to come in from different oceans and between every high is an area of weaker, lower, air pressure which can see fronts moving through bringing wet weather.

Over the next couple of days we're getting a demonstration of this with downpours and drizzle patches here and there, mainly in the south and east of the country.

But "here and there" is the theme. It's scattered and hit and miss, meaning some will get relief while others will continue to be drier than average. Highest candidates for dry weather seem to be inland, north and west.

Due to the high pressure belts - which remain strong in the New Zealand area despite some recent weakening - WeatherWatch.co.nz still anticipates a drier than average pattern, generally speaking, up until Christmas and for the rest of December. But the hit and miss nature of these downpours - fueled by warmer than average waters around the country - could mean relief for some, perhaps most likely in the east of both islands this time.

WeatherWatch.co.nz said in September that summer was likely to kick off dry with big dry areas growing - but at the same time the warm air and warm oceans could lead to heavier downpours and a higher risk of localised floods (as we saw in Roxburgh, Otago a few weeks ago).

To drill down into your local area check the 10 day forecasts we have your location. If the chance of rain is about 60% that's a positive sign for a chance of soaking rains. Also check out our rain maps for the next 10 days - you will see how various fronts and bands of rain and showers appear from time to time - but also how high pressure then guides it away again.

It's possible that over the next week or so eastern areas - some of the driest parts of the country - will get some relief.

Oh and Christmas Day? At this stage we're expecting mostly dry weather across New Zealand - but we'll provide more details later this week.

- Image / Rain map for Tuesday Morning (Dec 12th) / Weathermap.co.nz
- WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/next-two-weeks-more-hot-dry-i...

Posted on December 12, 2017 at 12:45 PM

Tuesday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Tue, 12/12/2017 - 04:00

A weakening front moves northwards over the South Island during today while another weak feature may trigger some heavy isolated showers for Northland / Auckland in the afternoon.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Sunny spells and isolated showers possible in the afternoon, especially for Northland and Auckland with the low risk of a heavy fall. Southwesterly winds.
Highs: 24-25

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Sunny spells with the low risk of an isolated shower late afternoon / evening, mainly dry otherwise. West to northwesterly winds.
Highs: 22-25

Eastern North Island
Sunny weather, there may be some evening cloud with the risk of a shower otherwise mainly dry. Light winds tend easterly in the afternoon.
Highs: 24-28

Wellington
Sunny spells with northerly winds.
High: 22

Marlborough & Nelson
Mostly sunny with some developing high cloud, may be an isolated shower late afternoon or evening about inland hills and ranges. Light winds in the morning then afternoon sea breezes.
Highs: 24-26

Canterbury
Mostly cloudy with southerlies tending easterly in the afternoon, some drizzle about South Canterbury spreads northwards in the afternoon.
Highs: 15-19

West Coast
Periods of cloud and a few showers, some sun at times. Becoming mainly dry about South Westland from afternoon then evening further north. Westerlies gradually tend southwest as the day moves along.
Highs: 19-21

Southland & Otago
Periods of cloud and a few showers, west to southwesterly winds.
Highs: 15-20

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/tuesdays-national-forecast-24...

Posted on December 12, 2017 at 12:39 PM

Fiordland drier than Alice Springs...what the heck?! (+2 Maps)

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Mon, 11/12/2017 - 10:56

Fiordland - one of the wettest places on earth - has had less rain that desert parts of central Australia over the past 30 days.

While New Zealand has been stuck under high pressure for much of the past month many inland, southern and eastern parts of Australia have been much wetter than average.

Fiordland averages between 14 and 18 metres of rain a year (depending on elevation). Most main centres in New Zealand get around 1 metre give or take 300mm. Some parts of the West Coast just had over 3 weeks with not a drop of rain due to the stubborn block of high pressure - while at the same time parts of Australia were flooded. Areas around Alice Springs are blooming with life thanks to the rare early summer deluges.

Thankfully this past weekend the Fiordland National Park rain forest had a decent deluge.
More wet weather is coming for Fiordland, but as you can see from the second map at the bottom of the page much of New Zealand remains drier than average for the next 7 days ahead - despite the drizzle and downpours that will be popping up.

WeatherWatch.co.nz still sees no end in sight for this particularly dry weather pattern around New Zealand, but the daytime downpours will be bringing hit and miss pockets of relief to some.

High pressure may dominate in the New Zealand are until the end of December - but we do expect showers and downpours in the mix.

View Maps here: http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/fiordland-drier-alice-springs...

FORECAST RAINFALL for the next 7 days in New Zealand: The darker the red shading the drier it will be. White = average rainfall. Blue = wetter than usual. (Data once again thanks to the US Government and taxpayers).

- WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/fiordland-drier-alice-springs...

Posted on December 11, 2017 at 1:39 PM

Monday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Mon, 11/12/2017 - 04:00

A northwesterly airflow lies over New Zealand today, a few weak frontal zones sit over the North Island while a stronger front affects the far south.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Expect cloudy areas and occasional sun, a few showers possible also but many dry spells. During the afternoon showers become a little more organised with some perhaps even becoming heavy. A thunderstorm risk is also present about the Waikato and inland Bay Of Plenty. Winds mostly from the north or northwest.
Highs: 24-25

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
May be a morning shower then expect sunny spells, west to northwesterly winds.
Highs: 22-24

Eastern North Island
Sunny areas and increasing high cloud, may be a shower late afternoon / evening mainly about the ranges. Northeasterlies near the coast, winds tend more northwest inland.
Highs: 24-28

Wellington
Sunny spells with breezy north to northwesterly winds.
High: 22
Marlborough & Nelson
Sunny with north to northwesterly winds.
Highs: 26-30

Canterbury
Mostly sunny with some high cloud later in the day, northeasterlies near the coast and northwest winds inland.
Highs: 28-31

West Coast
Mostly cloudy skies, perhaps a shower or two about. Fiordland sees rain for much of the day with the odd heavy fall. Winds from the northwest.
Highs: 16-23

Southland & Otago
Areas of rain for Southland, Otago has a dry morning with high cloud then rain moves in during the afternoon. Some parts of northern Otago may remain dry till later in the evening. West to northwest winds tend southwest by evening.
Highs: 16-24

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/mondays-national-forecast-245...

Posted on December 11, 2017 at 1:31 PM

Saturday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Sat, 09/12/2017 - 04:00

A north to northwesterly airflow lies over New Zealand on Saturday with a few slow moving fronts gradually pushing northwards over the South Island during the day.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Sunny spells with the low risk of a shower for Northland and Auckland, the Waikato and to a greater extent the Bay Of Plenty experience cloudier skies with the higher risk of a shower or two during the day. Northeasterly winds.
Highs: 23-25

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
The odd shower possible for Taranaki, more so in the morning then drying out in the afternoon with sunny spells breaking through. Sunny spells elsewhere. Northerly winds tending more northwest in the afternoon.
Highs: 22-26

Eastern North Island
Sunny, perhaps a touch of high cloud with north to northeasterly winds.
Highs: 26-30

Wellington
Cloudy areas and occasional sun with breezy north to northwesterly winds.
High: 22

Marlborough & Nelson
Sunny areas and some high cloud, may be a morning shower for Nelson. Breezy north to northwesterly winds, especially from afternoon.
Highs: 23-27

Canterbury
Sunny areas and some high cloud, some rain in the high country for a time in the afternoon and evening. Northwesterlies, breezy from afternoon.
Highs: 27-31

West Coast
Mostly cloudy with areas of rain for South Westland, perhaps a heavy fall or two. The odd shower further north then turning to rain late afternoon or evening. Breezy northerly winds.
Highs: 20-22

Southland & Otago
Some morning sun then a period of rain in the afternoon for Southland as northerlies change breezy westerly. Becoming dry again by evening. Otago sees early rain clear then expect sunny areas and some high cloud, chance spot of rain again late afternoon / evening with gusty northwesterly winds developing after midday.
Highs: 25-29

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/saturdays-national-forecast-2...

Posted on December 10, 2017 at 4:14 AM

Australia: Eastern storms strike capital cities Friday

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Fri, 08/12/2017 - 21:00

Skies have darkened over Brisbane and Sydney this afternoon as thunderstorms rolled through both capital cities.

A broad low pressure trough draped across eastern Australia and a cold front moving over NSW produced the storms, some of which have produced hail and blustery winds.

A line of storms formed west of Brisbane late in the morning before sweeping over the city shortly after lunchtime. A severe storm warning was issued before a wind gust of 82kmh was recorded at Beaudesert around midday. A rain gauge near Amberley registered 15mm of rain one hour.

Thunderstorms started to develop in Sydney shortly after midday and within the next hour, multiple cells were besieging the Basin. Small hail was reported in Berowra from one of the intense storms.

Storms remain a threat over parts of both cities for the rest of this afternoon and into the early evening and may become severe.

Stay up to date with the latest warnings here:http://www.weatherzone.com.au/warnings.jsp...
- By Ben Domensino, Weatherzone

- Link to WaetherWatch article: http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/australia-eastern-storms-stri...

Posted on December 09, 2017 at 1:40 AM

Friday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Fri, 08/12/2017 - 04:00

A large anticyclone is centred to the east of New Zealand today while a northerly airflow flows over the country. Meanwhile a front iles across the far south.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
A mix of sun and cloud with northeasterly winds, chance of an isolated shower about western Waikato in the afternoon / evening otherwise mainly dry.
Highs: 23-25

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Mostly sunny with light winds in the morning then afternoon sea breezes (coming in from the western quarter). Some cloud may build in the afternoon about some hills and ranges bringing the risk of an isolated shower through till evening.
Highs: 22-27

Eastern North Island
Mostly sunny with east to northeasterly winds.
Highs: 24-27

Wellington
Sunny spells with breezy north to northwesterly winds.
High: 23

Marlborough & Nelson
Sunny with north to northwesterly winds picking up in the afternoon, overnight high cloud.
Highs: 24-29

Canterbury
Mostly sunny with some late high cloud, a few spots of rain spread into South Canterbury in the evening then further north overnight. Winds tend northwest for most however right along the coastal fringes a sea breeze forms by midday.
Highs: 27-32

West Coast
Mostly cloudy with a few showers then turning to rain in the afternoon with a few heavy falls possible. Areas of rain / showers more persistent Hokitika southwards, Greymouth is a bit of a transition area then further north into Buller conditions remain dry for much of the day with sunny areas and some high cloud. Northerly winds.
Highs: 21-26

Southland & Otago
Sunny areas and thickening high cloud, a few spots of rain in the afternoon / evening. Northerly winds, tending more northeast about the Otago coast.
Highs: 24-26

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/fridays-national-forecast-288...

Posted on December 08, 2017 at 3:19 PM

Thursday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Thu, 07/12/2017 - 04:00

Mainly settled and hot weather today due to an anticyclone.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Mostly sunny, light winds in the morning then afternoon sea breezes. Some cloud may build a little in the afternoon for the Waikato with the low risk of an isolated shower otherwise mainly dry. Also some cloud may affect Northland, mainly in the east during the day in a slightly more dominant northeasterly airflow.
Highs: 24-28

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Sunny and hot (warmest temperatures inland), light winds in the morning then afternoon sea breezes. There may be an isolated shower / downpour for some inland hills and ranges late afternoon or evening.
Highs: 23-28

Eastern North Island
Mostly sunny weather after morning cloud breaks away, east to northeasterly winds.
Highs: 22-25

Wellington
Any early cloud clears to sunny weather with light winds from the north. Hotter inland to the north.
High: 24-27

Marlborough & Nelson
Mostly sunny with northeasterly winds for Marlborough, northerlies in Nelson.
Highs: 24-28

Canterbury
Morning cloud breaks to mostly sunny weather. East to northeasterly winds pick up a little in the afternoon, especially near the coast.
Highs: 22-27

West Coast
Morning cloud breaks to mostly sunny weather, light winds then afternoon sea breezes. Warmest temperatures about inland Buller.
Highs: 22-28

Southland & Otago
A mostly sunny day after any morning cloud clears, light winds then afternoon sea breezes. Hot for inland areas.
Highs: 23-32

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/thursdays-national-forecast-2...

Posted on December 08, 2017 at 3:16 PM

Wednesday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Wed, 06/12/2017 - 04:00

Mainly settled and hot weather continues today due to a large anticyclone.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Sunny with light winds in the morning, afternoon sea breezes although easterly winds dominate for Northland. Some cloud in the afternoon for some inland areas.
Highs: 24-30

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Sunny and hot (warmest temperatures inland), light winds in the morning then afternoon sea breezes.
Highs: 25-30

Eastern North Island
Morning cloud breaks to mostly sunny weather, morning southerlies then afternoon easterlies.
Highs: 23-25

Wellington
Sunny spells with southeasterly winds.
High: 23

Marlborough & Nelson
Mostly sunny with easterly winds for Marlborough, northerlies in Nelson.
Highs: 24-26

Canterbury
Cloudy areas and occasional sun, parts of North Canterbury may see a fair amount of sun through till midday bringing in some warmer temperatures. East to northeasterly winds.
Highs: 20-24

West Coast
Morning cloud breaks to mostly sunny weather, light winds in the morning then afternoon sea breezes. Warmest temperatures about inland Buller.
Highs: 21-29

Southland & Otago
Morning cloud breaks to sunny spells about Southland and Central Otago, isolated showers possible in the afternoon / evening for inland areas. Coastal Otago has a fairly cloudy day. Light winds in the morning then afternoon sea breezes.
Highs: 19-29

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/wednesdays-national-forecast-...

Posted on December 06, 2017 at 8:31 PM

Something big needs to happen or droughts will develop in parts of NZ (+6 Maps)

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Tue, 05/12/2017 - 14:10

It's not a headline we enjoy writing, nor is it easy to talk about - but unless something major changes in New Zealand's weather patterns droughts may very well form in parts of the country, especially the east, as we head into 2018.

New Zealand is becoming exceptionally dry in some regions and with the hottest time of the year still two to three months away many are asking us "When will things change?".

Wellington is running low on water, as is Napier. Some other regions that had a very wet autumn and winter have now had no rain in a month.

It's critically important to remember we're a small country and that singular events (like a big low, or a big high) can affect our monthly totals in significant ways. In other words we can be OPTIMISTIC that rain makers will eventually push through this stubborn belt of high pressure and bring relief. The big question is when?

BE OPTIMISTIC AND PREPARED
Now might be a great time to chat with other farmers and growers you know around the country - as with previous big dry events conditions were made easier when a burden is shared. In the coming week(s) we'll be talking with the Minister for Primary Industries even further and will do our best to ensure we cover both the forecasts but also ensure you know who to talk to should you need some support. These dry events can be blimmin tough when it's making your business struggle. We're all here to help - if you're worried you can reach out to us with your questions - or many others on social media (Like our @WeatherWatchNZ Twitter page for example).

In saying that, we also need to be honest about what we're dealing with here. We've said since October this summer could see pockets of big dry events mixed in with flood events. The warmer than usual sea temperatures around the country can help create rain and La Nina can produce more tropical lows. As we've seen recently the daytime deluges can cause flash flooding...perhaps the best example yet of how we can have dry, hot, 30 degrees weather and then have a localised flood event.
===============================================================================================
IS RAIN COMING?
Yes and no. The West Coast of the South Island is likely to get decent rainfall for 3 days around this weekend. But little will spillover elsewhere. This same front will cross the North Island on Sunday PM and will be weakening further and further as it does so (as it's running into high pressure). There will be some wet weather in the North Island but we do expect this band of rain to weaken quite a bit. Hit and miss.

The next chance for rain will be later next week, around Dec 14 and 15 where we do see a chance for downpours again on the West Coast. WeatherWatch.co.nz has seen a number of models hinting at a possible low forming around the NZ area around these dates - but surrounded by high pressure. In other words, we may find there's a small zone of decent rain - but whether it crosses our driest regions is unknown yet.

WHAT ABOUT RAIN LATER IN DECEMBER?
There are some signs of a cold front and low in the Southern Tasman Sea area in the week before Christmas. Again this bodes well for rain on the West Coast but it's too far out to know if it could spread into the North Island or the very dry east coast.
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MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS NEXT FEW DAYS:
- Unseasonably hot and persistently dry conditions (which has been for weeks inland) will persist until this weekend, as the high pressure covering the entire country gradually moves to east. 

- Tuesday and Wednesday the southern half of the South Island will be a bit cloudy and the rest of the country is mostly clear, except Auckland and Bay of Plenty areas where some low cloud is likely to persist at times (especially morning).  

- It will be mostly sunny on Thursday throughout the country. There is some chance of stray rain shower possibly with lightning over mountainous areas in the North Island. 

- The dry spell will END on the West Coast late on Friday as a cold front arrives and brings heavy rain in. A little may spillover into Southland, but nothing significant.

- On the other hand, the east side of the South Island will be mostly sunny and even hotter than the previous day. The maximum temperature in Christchurch is forecast to reach 30C with highs in the mid 30s inland.

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HOW MUCH HOTTER THAN NORMAL IS IT?
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...
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http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...

- InfoGraphics by The Weather Company (an IBM business and an Official WeatherWatch.co.nz business partner)

- WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/something-big-needs-happen-or...

Posted on December 06, 2017 at 3:01 AM

Tuesday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Tue, 05/12/2017 - 04:00

Anticyclonic conditions continue today bringing mainly settled weather, a front brushes the far south of the South Island however.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Mostly sunny with light winds in the morning, afternoon sea breezes.
Highs: 23-27

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Mostly sunny with light winds in the morning after any early cloud breaks away, afternoon west to northwesterly winds.
Highs: 22-26

Eastern North Island
Sunny with afternoon northeasterly winds for Hawkes Bay and Gisborne.
Highs: 26-31

Wellington
Sunny spells with northerly winds, changing southerly overnight.
High: 23

Marlborough & Nelson
Sunny with afternoon easterlies in Marlborough, winds tend northerly for Nelson.
Highs: 25-29

Canterbury
Mostly sunny with some high cloud, light winds tend easterly in the afternoon. Some cloud may develop about South Canterbury and the foothills of Mid Canterbury later in the evening.
Highs: 25-30

West Coast
Sunny areas and some high cloud for areas north of about Hokitika, skies a little cloudier further south. Fiordland sees morning rain easing to showers then clearing by evening. Westerly quarter winds.
Highs: 20-27

Southland & Otago
Any early showers clear Southland, cloud may break to a few sunny spells in the afternoon. Otago sees morning sun and some high cloud then lower level cloud increases in the afternoon. Westerlies change southerly in the afternoon.
Highs: 20-30

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/tuesdays-national-forecast-24...

Posted on December 05, 2017 at 11:15 AM

Special Update: NZ's current set up breaking all the norms

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Mon, 04/12/2017 - 11:36

Most of New Zealand is drier than average. Most of NZ is warmer than average. Now the sea surface temperatures are not only above average, but they are warmer than average more so than anywhere else on the globe.

Current sea surface temperatures between New Zealand's South Island and Australia's south eastern corner (the south half of the Tasman Sea) are well above average, by over 6 degrees. Often a couple degrees above average can make news headlines, six degrees is quite extraordinary. 

WeatherWatch.co.nz head forecaster Philip Duncan says the lack of movement in the weather around New Zealand over the past several weeks has contributed. "The Tasman Sea is basically like a bath with the hot tap on and the cold tap isn't turned on properly. With no big Tasman Sea lows or strong southerly wind flows we're instead seeing warm ocean currents, which hug Australia's eastern coastline, drift across the Tasman Sea. There's no churning motion to mix warm and cool".

The West Coast of the South Island now has similar temperatures to those swimming in northern beaches around Bay of Plenty, Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula. Sea surface temperatures are around 19 degrees in the west and north. Generally speaking sea surface temperatures around New Zealand don't peak until March.

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...

ABOVE - Sea surface temperatures in yellow/yellowy-white are over 6 degrees above normal for now.
BELOW - The Tasman Sea area is much warmer than average, more than anywhere else on the planet.  Images via GFS/Earth.nullschool.net

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...

WHAT ABOUT RAINFALL?  WHEN WILL NEW ZEALAND GET RAIN?
Warmer oceans leads to bigger storms and more downpours, so the current set up basically highlights something WeatherWatch.co.nz first mentioned about this coming summer back in October - that it may have a mix of droughts and some isolated flood events.

The 10 day trend for New Zealand shows some improvement to previous updates in November, with less extreme red and more blue coming back in. (See map below).
However, the general trend is for much of New Zealand to remain hotter and drier than average.

Daily downpours may return to inland areas as well this week, but won't be as widespread as last week. 

10 DAY FORECAST RAINFALL MAP COMPARED TO AVERAGE:

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...
- Red = much drier than average
- Pink = Mostly dry, some showers
- White = Average rainfall.
- Blue: Wet, perhaps wetter than average (if dark blue).
GFS (US Govt).

- WeatherWatch.co.nz  http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/special-update-new-zealands-c...

Posted on December 04, 2017 at 1:58 PM

Monday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Mon, 04/12/2017 - 04:00

An anticyclone hangs over New Zealand today bringing yet again more sunny and settled weather.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Mainly sunny and warm with light winds this morning, afternoon sea breezes. Some cloud about hills and ranges in the afternoon / evening brings the low risk of a shower.
Highs: 22-29

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Mostly sunny and warm with light winds this morning, afternoon sea breezes. Some cloud about hills and ranges inland in the afternoon / evening brings the low risk of a shower.
Highs: 23-28

Eastern North Island
Mostly sunny and warm with light winds this morning, afternoon sea breezes. Some cloud about hills and ranges inland in the afternoon / evening brings the low risk of a shower.
Highs: 24-26

Wellington
Sunny spells with northerly winds.
High: 22

Marlborough & Nelson
Sunny and hot with northerly winds picking up this afternoon.
Highs: 25-31

Canterbury
Mainly sunny with any morning high cloud clearing, afternoon east to northeasterly winds.
Highs: 26-31

West Coast
Sunny areas and some high cloud, sun may become more frequent this afternoon for North Westland with temperatures becoming hot inland. About Fiordland cloud thickens up this afternoon gradually bringing in a few showers. Winds from west or northwest.
Highs: 21-28

Southland & Otago
High cloud with some sun breaking through at times, cloud becoming a bit thicker for Southland this afternoon then a shower or two may gradually spread from the west. Winds from the northwest for most however a light northeasterly develops about coastal Otago.
Highs: 25-31

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/mondays-national-forecast-244...

Posted on December 04, 2017 at 1:42 PM

Sunday's national forecast: Daytime highs in to the low-mid 30s expected inland

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Sun, 03/12/2017 - 04:00

For the most part New Zealand is finally done with the major daytime downpours, after what has been a very busy week inland with them.

However a few do linger. We may see some early drizzle or light showers in the east of Northland this morning whicih may turn to heavier (but isolated) afternoon downpours inland towards Kaitaia. There may also be a few daytime heat showers through inland BOP. Thunderstorms are not forecast at this stage but there is some chance of an isolated one.

Elsewhere across New Zealand today's forecast is so easy we don't need to list regions: Dry with sea breezes/light winds, mostly sunny and hot with highs into the low to mid 30s for inland parts of the South Island and low 30s possible in the eastern North Island.

Check your local WeatherWatch.co.nz forecast for more details.

- WeatherWatch.co.nzhttp://communityweather.org.nz/index.php/forums/weather-discussion/...

Posted on December 03, 2017 at 3:33 PM

Saturday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Sat, 02/12/2017 - 04:00

Today sees a northwesterly airflow start to develop over the South Island, this brings an end to heavy inland showers for the South Island but hot temperatures in the east. A few heavy showers develop again for the inner North Island.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Mainly sunny and warm with light winds in the morning, afternoon sea breezes. Isolated showers in the afternoon for Waikato, possibly heavy then clearing later. There may be a light morning  shower for eastern Northland and about Great Barrier Island / eastern Coromandel.
Highs: 22-24

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Mostly sunny with light west to northwesterly winds. Chance of an isolated afternoon shower, mainly inland about the ranges with even the risk of a thunderstorm then clearing later in the day. Otherwise mainly dry elsewhere.
Highs: 19-24

Eastern North Island
Mostly sunny with light winds, afternoon sea breezes near the coast while just inland winds may tend more northwest. A risk of afternoon showers about the ranges of southern Hawkes Bay / northern Wairarapa, these showers could become heavy with thunderstorms then clearing later in the day.
Highs: 23-26

Wellington
Sunny spells with breezy north to northwesterly winds.
High: 21

Marlborough & Nelson
Sunny and hot with northwesterly winds about Marlborough, north to northeasterly winds for Nelson.
Highs: 23-29

Canterbury
Mainly sunny and hot with light winds. Afternoon northeasterlies may develop about coastal areas.
Highs: 26-30

West Coast
Mostly sunny with light west to northwesterly winds, skies about Fiordland a tad cloudier with a drizzle patch or
two.
Highs: 18-25

Southland & Otago
Mostly sunny with some high cloud from afternoon, northwesterly winds for most although about coastal Otago a light northeasterly may develop in the afternoon.
Highs: 25-29

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/saturdays-national-forecast-2...

Posted on December 02, 2017 at 7:39 PM

Friday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Fri, 01/12/2017 - 04:00

An anticyclone continues to cover New Zealand today, watch once again for inland downpours / thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Sunny spells, afternoon showers about southern Auckland, the Waikato and perhaps inland western Bay Of Plenty. These showers may become heavy with thunderstorms then clearing later in the day. The greatest risk is about the Waikato itself. Light northeasterly winds.
Highs: 21-25

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
A mix of sun and cloud with light winds, afternoon sea breezes near the coast. Heavy showers developing for some inland areas after midday. A chance of thunderstorms also then clearing at night.
Highs: 20-26

Eastern North Island
Mostly sunny after any morning cloud breaks away, cloud build ups may produce heavy showers and thunderstorms about the ranges of Wairarapa in the afternoon / evening. Light winds in the morning then sea breezes.
Highs: 22-25

Wellington
Mostly sunny with northerly breezes.
High: 23

Marlborough & Nelson
Mostly sunny with afternoon north to northwesterly winds. Showers may develop for inland areas in the afternoon, some becoming heavy with thunderstorms then clearing at night.
Highs: 22-27

Canterbury
Mostly sunny after any morning cloud clears with afternoon east to northeasterly breezes, inland about the foothills showers develop in the afternoon, possibly heavy with thunderstorms then clearing later in the evening.
Highs: 23-25

West Coast
Mostly sunny after any morning cloud breaks away, afternoon westerly winds. Fiordland sees some cloud and a shower or two in the afternoon.
Highs: 21-26

Southland & Otago
Mostly sunny with light winds after any morning cloud breaks away, afternoon sea breezes. Becoming hot for some inland areas. There may be heavy showers or downpours develop late afternoon / evening for inland areas, low risk of a thunderstorm then clearing later in the evening.
Highs: 23-28

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/fridays-national-forecast-287...

Posted on December 01, 2017 at 1:38 PM

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OhauitiWeather

OhauitiWeather
Total Posts: 337
Joined: February 27, 2012

Thursday's national forecast

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/wednesdays-national-forecast-266

A front races northwards over the South Island this morning then pushes northwards over the North Island this afternoon / evening, all in a strong westerly quarter airflow.

North…

Posted on May 23, 2018 at 11:29 PM

OhauitiWeather

OhauitiWeather
Total Posts: 337
Joined: February 27, 2012

Wednesday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Wed, 23/05/2018 - 04:00

A front clears off to the northeast of the North Island early this morning, expect a cold southwesterly airflow for the rest of the day.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Showers, so…

Posted on May 23, 2018 at 11:17 PM

OhauitiWeather

OhauitiWeather
Total Posts: 337
Joined: February 27, 2012

Tuesday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Tue, 22/05/2018 - 05:01

A northwesterly airflow strengthens over New Zealand today with a front sliding across the upper North Island during the day, weakening by evening. Another front (this time a cold change) moves ont…

Posted on May 23, 2018 at 11:13 PM