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Thursday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Thu, 30/11/2017 - 04:00

An anticyclone continues to cover New Zealand today, watch once again for inland downpours / thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Cloudy areas, afternoon showers possibly heavy. Isolated thunder possible especially just away from coastal areas. Light winds and sea breezes.
Highs: 21-23

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
A mix of sun and cloud with light winds, afternoon sea breezes near the coast. Heavy showers developing for some inland areas after midday, mainly north of about Palmerston North. A chance of thunderstorms also then clearing at night.
Highs: 21-24

Eastern North Island
Mostly sunny after any morning cloud breaks away, cloud build ups may produce heavy showers about the ranges in the afternoon / evening, especially the ranges of northern Hawkes Bay and Gisborne. Light winds in the morning then sea breezes.
Highs: 20-23

Wellington
Morning cloud breaks to sunny spells, southeasterly winds.
High: 20

Marlborough & Nelson
A mix of sun and cloud with sea breezes developing. Showers developing for inland areas in the afternoon, some may become heavy with thunderstorms then clearing at night.
Highs: 21-22

Canterbury
Morning cloud breaks to sunny spells, afternoon easterlies. Way up in the high country cloud builds in the afternoon bringing heavy showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Showers ease later in the evening and may drift into the foothills for a time before clearing.
Highs: 19-22

West Coast
A mix of sun and cloud with light winds in the morning, afternoon sea breezes. Showers developing about the ranges in the afternoon, some becoming heavy with thunderstorms then clearing at night.
Highs: 21-24

Southland & Otago
Mostly sunny with light winds after any morning cloud breaks away, afternoon sea breezes. Becoming hot for some inland areas. There may be heavy showers or downpours develop late afternoon / evening for inland areas, low risk of a thunderstorm then clearing later in the evening.
Highs: 21-27

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/thursdays-national-forecast-2...

Posted on November 29, 2017 at 8:32 PM

Wednesday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Wed, 29/11/2017 - 04:00

Another Groundhog Day for New Zealand with a repeat of weather conditions: Coastal clouds and warmer than average airflows leading to inland deluges later in the day with the risk of localised flash flooding, hail and thunder.

Generally speaking high pressure dominates New Zealand but a humid nor'east flow is helping spark inland downpours.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Cloudy and sunny spells. Light winds or light east to north east breezes. Dry or mostly dry but risk of downpours in Waikato later in the day with possible thunderstorms.
Highs: 21-25
 
Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Dry for most coastal areas with more sunny spells, inland large downpours developing with heavy rain through the Central Plateau area and some of the southern and eastern ranges.  Thunder, hail and flash flooding possible.
Highs: 21-25
 
Eastern North Island
Cloudy areas, especially inland where rain may develop around the ranges during the afternoon with heavy downpours and isolated thunderstorms. Rain may spread east to the coast in places.
Highs: 21-24
 
Wellington
A mix of sun and cloud with light winds mainly from the north.
Highs: 22-25
 
Marlborough & Nelson
A fairly hot day, especially inland. A mix of sun and cloud with afternoon cloud build ups producing big downpours and possible thunderstorms on the ranges. Northerly quarter winds.
Highs: 24-27
 
Canterbury
Winds mainly off the sea with cloudy areas continuing, building in the afternoon with isolated downpours developing along the ranges with possible isolated thunderstorms later in the day, otherwise the region looks fairly dry and quite cloudy. 
Highs: 21-23
 
West Coast
Mostly Sunny with afternoon sea breezes.
Highs: 22-24
 
Southland & Otago
Mostly sunny with light winds around the coastlines, some cloudy areas. Afternoon cloud build ups through the ranges, most likely in the east and drifting slowly west. Isolated thunder possible, easing in the evening. A risk of isolated flash flooding and hail. Fairly hot through Central Otago, especially away from the clouds. A little cooler today than Tuesday was.
Highs: 19-24

- WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/wednesdays-national-forecast-...

Posted on November 29, 2017 at 12:20 PM

Tuesday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Tue, 28/11/2017 - 04:00

An anticyclone continues to cover New Zealand today, watch once again for inland downpours / thunderstorms during this afternoon and evening.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Calm with sunny spells and afternoon cloud builds, showers developing in the afternoon with possible downpours / thunderstorms, mostly in South Waikato and inland Bay Of Plenty - may stay dry elsewhere.
Highs: 21-24

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Sunny spells, light winds in the morning tending onshore in the afternoon. Cloud builds about inland hills and ranges during the afternoon, heavy showers late afternoon / evening inland possibly heavy with thunderstorms then clearing at night.
Highs: 21-24

Eastern North Island
Morning cloud breaks to sunny spells, light winds in the morning tending onshore in the afternoon. Cloud builds about inland hills and ranges during the afternoon, heavy showers late afternoon / evening inland possibly heavy with thunderstorms then clearing at night.
Highs: 19-24

Wellington
Mostly sunny with light winds, isolated heavy showers developing about inland hills and ranges may turn thundery late afternoon / evening then clearing at night.
Highs: 21-23

Marlborough & Nelson
Mostly sunny with light winds in the morning then onshore winds pick up in the afternoon. Clouds builds inland during the afternoon, heavy showers and possible thunderstorms about inland ranges late afternoon / evening then clearing at night.
Highs: 22-24

Canterbury
Mostly sunny with light winds in the morning then onshore winds pick up in the afternoon. Clouds builds inland during the afternoon, heavy showers and possible thunderstorms about inland ranges late afternoon / evening then clearing at night.
Highs: 20-24

West Coast
Mostly sunny with light winds in the morning, afternoon sea breezes. May be an isolated shower late afternoon / evening inland about Buller.
Highs: 19-26

Southland & Otago
Mostly sunny after any morning cloud breaks away, light winds in the morning tend onshore in the afternoon. For inland parts of Otago isolated showers develop during the afternoon, some may become heavy with a risk of thunder then clearing at night.
Highs: 20-26

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/tuesdays-national-forecast-24...

Posted on November 29, 2017 at 12:11 PM

Australia: November heat in Melbourne breaks 162 years of records

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Fri, 24/11/2017 - 08:08

Melbourne is experiencing a record-breaking spell of November heat that will persist into the weekend.

Warm northerly winds flowing across Victoria this week are sending the mercury soaring more than 10 degrees above average. While days this warm are not unusual in Melbourne at this time of year, it's extraordinary to have so many of them occurring back to back without any respite. 

It was an eerie start to the day in parts of Melbourne as ship fog horns bellowed across Port Phillip Bay early this morning. The veil of thick fog mainly affected western suburbs and burnt off quickly after the sun rose and temperatures started to climb.

With the sun shining and northerly winds continuing to blow, Melbourne is forecast to reach tops of 33 degrees today and on Friday and 30 degrees on Saturday. The city's average maximum at this time of year is 22 degrees.

Melbourne's forecast temperatures would bring the city's run of days over 28 degrees to eight by Saturday. This would be the city's longest stretch of November days over 28 degrees in 162 years of records, beating the previous record of six days from 2009 and 1896.

Friday would also be the city's fourth consecutive day at or above 32.6 degrees, a feat which has only happened on one other occasion during November on record, also in 2009.

A weak cool change should reach the city on Sunday and bring some relief from the heat early next week. The respite will be short-lived though, with temperatures forecast to reach the low thirties once again by Wednesday.

- By Ben Domensino, Weatherzone http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/australia-november-heat-melbo...

Posted on November 24, 2017 at 12:40 AM

Friday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Fri, 24/11/2017 - 04:00

Friday sees more high pressure build around the country but more daytime downpours developing, some heavy with possible thunder. It's still looking hot inland too.

Here are the regional forecasts for Friday:

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Quite sunny with light winds in the morning, afternoon sea breezes. Hotter inland. More cloudy spells possible today.
Highs: 21-27

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Mostly sunny with light winds in the morning then afternoon sea breezes. A warm afternoon for inland areas.  May be a late heavy downpour around Central Plateau.
Highs: 22-27

Eastern North Island
Sunny with light winds in the morning, afternoon east to northeast winds.
Highs: 19-23

Wellington
Sunny with light winds in the morning. Northerlies turn southerly today, perhaps creating a few clouds but dry.
Highs: 21-23

Marlborough & Nelson
Mostly sunny weather, afternoon sea breezes. Afternoon cloud build ups but should stay dry.
Highs: 18-24

West Coast
A mix of sun and cloud with light winds in the morning, afternoon sea breezes. 
Highs: 18-26

Canterbury
Mainly sunny with afternoon east to northeasterly breezes. Late afternoon / evening isolated showers develop inland about some hills and ranges, particularly South Canterbury, otherwise dry.
Highs: 21-25

West Coast
A mix of sun and cloud with light winds in the morning, afternoon sea breezes. May be an isolated shower late afternoon / evening inland about some hills and ranges.
Highs: 18-26

Southland & Otago
Mostly sunny with light winds in the morning, afternoon sea breezes. Becoming hot for some inland areas. There may be heavy showers or downpours develop late afternoon / evening for inland areas otherwise mostly dry. Fog and low cloud in coastal parts of Otago lifting and breaking today. Perhaps not quite so hot today inland due to added cloud.
Highs: 17-27

- WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/fridays-national-forecast-286...

Posted on November 24, 2017 at 12:36 AM

Australia: Hobart to break November heat record

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Thu, 23/11/2017 - 10:50

Parts of southern Tasmania registered their highest November temperature in a decade today, while Hobart is one day away from a new November heat record. 

A near-stationary high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is causing a prolonged spell of unusually warm days in Tasmania this week, resulting in severe heatwave conditions across much of the state.

Maximum temperatures climbed up to 14 degrees above average today, with Strahan Airport reaching a top of 32 degrees.

West of Hobart, today was the warmest November day in a decade at Hartz Mountains National Park (29C) and and Bushy Park (33C).

Hobart's 31.5 degrees on Wednesday afternoon was 13 above average for this time of year and the city's warmest November day in two years. 

After another hot day, Hobart remains on track to register its first six day spell of November days above 25 degrees on record. 

This feat is forecast to be achieved tomorrow and it may even be extended to nine days by Sunday.

- By Ben Domensino, Weatherzone.com.auhttp://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/australia-hobart-break-novemb...

Posted on November 23, 2017 at 8:54 AM

Thursday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Thu, 23/11/2017 - 04:00

An anticyclone brings mainly settled weather for New Zealand today although conditions may become unstable inland for the South Island during this afternoon.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Mostly sunny with light winds in the morning, afternoon sea breezes. Warm about inland Bay Of Plenty in the afternoon.
Highs: 21-28

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Mostly sunny with light winds in the morning then afternoon sea breezes. A warm afternoon for inland areas.
Highs: 21-27

Eastern North Island
Sunny with light winds in the morning, afternoon east to northeast winds.
Highs: 19-23

Wellington
Sunny with light winds in the morning, afternoon sea breezes.
Highs: 21-23

Marlborough & Nelson
Mostly sunny weather, afternoon sea breezes. Chance of an isolated shower late afternoon / evening about some inland hills and ranges otherwise mainly dry.
Highs: 18-23

Canterbury
Mainly sunny with afternoon east to northeasterly breezes. Late afternoon / evening isolated showers develop inland about some hills and ranges, particularly Mid Canterbury southwards where some may become heavy with thunderstorms then clearing later on.
Highs: 21-27

West Coast
A mix of sun and cloud with light winds in the morning, afternoon sea breezes. May be an isolated shower late afternoon / evening inland about some hills and ranges.
Highs: 18-26

Southland & Otago
Mostly sunny with light winds in the morning, afternoon sea breezes. Becoming hot for some inland areas. There may be heavy showers or downpours develop late afternoon / evening for inland areas, perhaps even a thunderstorm then clearing later in the evening.
Highs: 19-32

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/thursdays-national-forecast-2...

Posted on November 23, 2017 at 8:49 AM

La Nina? That depends on which Government forecaster you ask

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Wed, 22/11/2017 - 12:44

Whether or not a La Nina event is currently underway in the Pacific Ocean depends on which country you are in.

According to an update issued by Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) on Tuesday, the Pacific Ocean is currently in a neutral phase and there is a 70 per cent chance of a La Nina event occurring during the months ahead.

This information contradicts an update released by America's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) earlier this month, which stated that a La Nina event is already underway and it is likely to persist until at least early next year. 

So with both the BoM and NOAA looking at the same Pacific Ocean, why don't they agree on whether or not a La Nina is occurring?

The unhelpful disagreement occurs because Australia and America have different operational definitions of La Nina. 

For a La Nina to be declared in Australia, any three of the following four thresholds need to be met:

- Sea surface temperatures in a defined region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (called NINO3 and NINO3.4) need to be 0.8 degrees below average
- Trade winds in the western or central equatorial Pacific Ocean need to have been stronger than average for the previous three to four months
- The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which measures the atmospheric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, needs to be at a value of seven or more when averaged over three months
- A majority of climate models surveyed by the BoM show sustained cooling in a defined area of the equatorial Pacific Ocean until the end of the year
America's NOAA considers a La Nina event to occur when:
- The sea surface temperature anomaly in a defined area of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (called the NINO3.4 region) is 0.5 degrees Celsius or more below average and is forecast to persist at that level for at least three months
- Atmospheric features, such as trade winds and air pressure, display La Nina-like characteristics

So while Australia's BoM and America's NOAA monitor the same Pacific Ocean, different operational definitions of La Nina between the two countries cause these events to be officially declared at different times.

Unfortunately, these distinct definitions are ingrained in each country's modus operandi and we are unlikely to see them merged into a consistent La Nina operational definition any time soon.

- Ben Domensino, Weatherzone http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/la-nina-depends-which-governm...
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Please note WeatherWatch.co.nz agrees with the above story from Weatherzone, Australia. Here in New Zealand NIWA (our Government owned climate research organisation) has sadly now turned heavily commercial. WeatherWatch.co.nz reports on La Nina and El Nino independently and often trust public Australian forecasters at BoM (which is not commercial like NIWA has become). We also trust NOAA in the US and build our own conclusions for what their forecasts mean for New Zealand. For example, last summer NIWA said conditions in NZ would be especially hot, it turned out to be fairly average for the first two months with many complaining it was wet and cool. WeatherWatch.co.nz says "weak" La Nina and El Nino events can sometimes miss New Zealand completely, especially with our weather being so chaotic due to our location on earth (sticking into the Southern Ocean area!).  So we don't always need to run news headlines about La Nina and El Nino events if they are especially weak or regionalised around the tropics/equator. Generally speaking WeatherWatch.co.nz likes to evaluate a number of non-commercial Government forecasters around the world when we comment on long term weather trends for NZ. Our new relationship with IBM means in the future WeatherWatch.co.nz will have access to the world's most powerful and intelligent computer to crunch seasonal data specific to regions in New Zealand. We also hope in the future NIWA returns to engaging with the private weather sector instead of using their resources to attack us or send legal threats from tax funded lawyers when all we're trying to do is share their tax funded information or data. This sadly goes against the rest of the first world especially when climate change issues are so topical. -WW

Posted on November 22, 2017 at 2:42 AM

Wednesday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Wed, 22/11/2017 - 04:00

A large anticyclone brings mainly settled conditions for New Zealand today.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
A mix of sun and cloud with light winds in the morning, afternoon sea breezes. There may be an isolated afternoon shower about Northland, clearing in the evening.
Highs: 19-23

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Mostly sunny with light east to southeasterly winds in the morning then afternoon sea breezes. A warm afternoon for the Central North Island around Lake Taupo.
Highs: 21-25

Eastern North Island
Morning cloud with the risk of a light shower, sunny spells increase from afternoon. Southerly winds die out in the evening.
Highs: 18-19

Wellington
Morning cloud breaks to mostly sunny weather, south to southeasterly winds.
High: 18-20

Marlborough & Nelson
Any morning cloud breaks to mostly sunny weather, afternoon sea breezes.
Highs: 18-23

Canterbury
Any early cloud breaks to sunny weather, afternoon easterlies. Warmest afternoon high's down in the McKenzie Country.
Highs: 20-25

West Coast
A mix of sun and cloud with light winds in the morning, afternoon sea breezes.
Highs: 19-24

Southland & Otago
Mostly sunny with light winds in the morning, afternoon sea breezes. Becoming hot for some inland areas.
Highs: 18-28

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/wednesdays-national-forecast-...

Posted on November 22, 2017 at 1:53 AM

Australia: Record challenging heat for Melbourne & Hobart as eastern seaboard chills out

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Tue, 21/11/2017 - 13:00

Australia's eastern seaboard is experiencing a notably cool November this year, while a spell of late-spring heat is challenging records in the nation's southeast.

Australian weather system are usually transient and typically move from west to east. A low pressure trough sitting over South Australia one day would normally be located over Victoria and NSW the next day. 

So, what happens when the weather systems over Australia slow down or get stuck in place?
Stagnant weather patterns cause individual locations around the country to experience a prolonged spell of similar conditions.

Such a sluggish synoptic setup is occurring at the moment and it is causing some unusual feats.

A high pressure system anchored over the Tasman Sea is directing onshore winds into the nation's east coast, resulting in cooler-than-average daytime maximum temperatures. 

Brisbane is on target to experience its longest run of cooler-than-average days in about four years, possibly reaching 17 days in a row this Thursday. Further south, Sydney's cool spell may see the city register it first November without any 30 degree days in 10 years. 

The Tasman High is sending eastern Australia's missing late-spring warmth down towards the nation's southeast, where Tasmania and southern Victoria will experience a heatwave this week.

Saturday was the first time in two years that Hobart (29.8C) was the warmest capital city in Australia other than Darwin. 

Hobart's run of heat will extend into the middle of this week, with the city on track to register six consecutive days on or above 27 degrees by Thursday. This has not happened during any month since 1890 and in November for 136 years. Hobart's average maximum at this time of year is 19 degrees.

If Melbourne reaches at least 28 degrees until Friday, which it is forecast to do, this will be the city's first seven-day spell at or above 28 degrees during November on record. The previous record for November was six days in both 2009 and 1896.

- By Ben Domensino, Weatherzone http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/australia-record-challenging-...

Posted on November 21, 2017 at 3:05 AM

Tuesday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Tue, 21/11/2017 - 04:00

A large anticyclone in the Tasman Sea stretches out a ridge over New Zealand today bringing mainly settled weather. Eastern regions may experience some cloud and a shower or drizzle patch however.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Mostly sunny with light winds in the morning, low risk of an isolated shower late afternoon / evening. Light winds in the morning then afternoon sea breezes.
Highs: 20-22

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Mostly sunny, some cloud builds towards the ranges in the east bringing the chance of a shower in the afternoon. Southeasterly winds.
Highs: 18-22

Eastern North Island
Mostly cloudy with a drizzle patch or two possible, southerly winds.
Highs: 18-19

Wellington
Periods of cloud, chance of a shower otherwise mainly dry. Southerly winds.
High: 17

Marlborough & Nelson
Mostly cloudy, may be a shower about inland hills and ranges afternoon / evening then clearing at night. East to southeasterly winds for Marlborough, afternoon northerlies in Nelson.
Highs: 17-19

Canterbury
Cloudy with the odd drizzle patch possible, drying out by evening. Cloud breaks away overnight. Southerly winds.
Highs: 13-15

West Coast
Mostly sunny, late afternoon / evening isolated showers develop about the ranges of Buller then clearing at night. Light winds.
Highs: 19-22

Southland & Otago
Any morning cloud / showers clear to a mostly sunny afternoon, light winds.
Highs: 14-23

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/tuesdays-national-forecast-24...

Posted on November 21, 2017 at 2:43 AM

Australia: Storms leave a white blanket on the Blue Mountains

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Sun, 19/11/2017 - 10:00

Parts of the Blue Mountains reported a covering of hail on Friday afternoon, as severe thunderstorms rolled through the area.

The ranges and western slopes of New South Wales experienced widespread thunderstorms yesterday, with severe thunderstorm warnings for large hail and damaging wind issued for parts of the state and the ACT. 

Hailstones of around 3cm in diameter were observed on the Darling Causeway near Mount Victoria around 2pm in the afternoon. Images and videos on social media showed scenes akin to the middle of winter in some ways, although the white stuff in this case was not snow. 

Over 13,000 lightning strikes were recorded within a 50km radius of Katoomba between midday and 4pm.

A large pool of upper cold air across the southeast of the country provided the instability required for thunderstorm development. Air at the surface was forced to rise, as onshore winds at the surface met the high ground of the Great Dividing Range, providing the trigger for many of the storms - which helps to explain why many of the storms were concentrated over the ranges.

Rain and showers are more likely than storms over the tableland districts of the state this afternoon, with thunderstorm activity mainly focused over western adjacent districts.

- Graeme Brittain, Weatherzone.com.au
_ Link to WeatherWatch article http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/australia-storms-leave-a-whit...

Posted on November 20, 2017 at 12:46 AM

Monday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Mon, 20/11/2017 - 04:00

An anticyclone in the Tasman Sea directs in a south to southeasterly airflow over New Zealand today, for the most part the weather is looking quite settled.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Mostly sunny after any morning cloud breaks away, light winds tend southeasterly.
Highs: 21-24

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Any early cloud clears then mostly sunny with southeasterly winds.
Highs: 19-22

Eastern North Island
Sunny spells about the Wairarapa, cloudier skies further north with the odd drizzle patch or shower especially the further north you go. Southerly winds.
Highs: 16-18

Wellington
Sunny spells with south to southeasterly winds.
High: 16

Marlborough & Nelson
Mostly sunny with afternoon easterlies about Marlborough, afternoon northerlies in Nelson.
Highs: 19-21

Canterbury
Mostly sunny then some cloud develops later this afternoon. A chance of some evening / overnight drizzle mainly for inland areas and South Canterbury. Southerly winds gradually freshen.
Highs: 17-20

West Coast
Sunny with light winds, afternoon sea breezes.
Highs: 18-26

Southland & Otago
Mostly cloudy with the risk of a shower or two, south to southwesterly winds.
Highs: 16-21

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/mondays-national-forecast-242...

Posted on November 20, 2017 at 12:38 AM

"Significant" dry spell developing across NZ, may last into December

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Fri, 17/11/2017 - 10:53

Special Update --- Fiordland is a rain forest and is one of the wettest places on earth, but for the next two weeks Milford Sound will have mostly to completely dry weather with temperatures pushing well into the mid 20s this weekend.

This is the example WeatherWatch.co.nz is using to highlight an unusually long dry spell of weather that is now setting in across New Zealand after what has been an exceptionally wet 2017 for many places. The concern now for those who rely on water for business is that we may be going from one extreme to another.

Reliable long range data sets show New Zealand will be drier than average for the next week ahead - with some computer models picking a high pressure belt affecting New Zealand not only for the rest of November, but also well into December.

Compared to November a year ago there are a number of regions that are much drier.
"When we look at maps going out to November 30th we can still see a huge belt of high pressure extending westwards from New Zealand, south of Australia, across to South Africa and then further beyond towards South America with very few gaps" says head forecaster Philip Duncan.  "The best chance for rain makers is in the gaps between the highs, but with so much high pressure any rain bands may be short lived and narrow".

It's not all negative news - despite the dry forecast the large high next week is expected to produce more daytime heat showers, which earlier this week gave Waikato, Auckland and Northland farmers some relief. Later this week downpours shifted to more central parts of the North Island, mostly the ranges and National Parks.

But eastern parts of both islands are now drier than average - and with a drier than average weather forecast it means Summer will be kicking off on a dry, warm, note which for many will be concerning.

"This dry spell is forming fast and looks significant when you take into account how much more high pressure is yet to come in" says Mr Duncan.

While a weak La Nina has been declared, like last summer, this is measured at the equator and may have little to no impact on New Zealand in WeatherWatch.co.nz's view. 

Mr Duncan says there's another positive - the sub-tropics are also quite active. "While we're missing the recent rain makers from the sub-tropics the current set up around Australia and New Zealand shows there are plenty of lows and rain bands. But until the protective layer of high pressure shifts away these rainmakers will be stuck in a rut pushing down into eastern/south eastern Australia and just to the north east of New Zealand". (this is illustrated in blue in the map directly below). Mr Duncan says the rain bands are near, we just need the highs to change shape to allow them in.

The weak cool front in the South Island today and the sub-tropical low approaching the upper North Island tomorrow are both expected to produce very little moisture for New Zealand.

For maps view the WeatherWatch page here: http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/significant-dry-spell-develop...

- WeatherWatch.co.nz Exclusive http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/significant-dry-spell-develop...

Posted on November 17, 2017 at 12:26 AM

Friday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Fri, 17/11/2017 - 04:00

A ridge brings mainly settled conditions today in the north meanwhile a weak front pushes northwards over the South Island during the day.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Sunny areas and increasing high cloud, a shower or two may clip northern parts of Northland during the day then overnight some eastern areas like eastern Northland, Great Barrier Island and Coromandel may see a shower or two also. Southeasterly winds.
Highs: 20-23

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Any early cloud clears then mostly sunny with west to northwest winds tending southeasterly in the evening.
Highs: 18-21

Eastern North Island
A mostly sunny day with afternoon easterlies. Cloud increases overnight bringing a chance of drizzle.
Highs: 20-22

Wellington
Mostly sunny with northerlies, an evening Southerly may bring some cloud.
High: 18

Marlborough & Nelson
Mainly sunny with light winds in the morning, afternoon easterlies for Marlborough while winds tend northerly in the afternoon about Nelson. A southeast change later in the evening may bring some cloud.
Highs: 19-21

Canterbury
A mainly sunny morning then afternoon southerlies bring increasing cloud, late afternoon / evening drizzle possible more so inland about the foothills.
High: 19

West Coast
Sunny spells with west to southwesterly winds, chance of a morning shower mainly about Fiordland.
Highs: 16-22

Southland & Otago
Chance of a morning shower with a southwest change then sunny areas increase from afternoon, southwesterly winds die out in the evening.
Highs: 13-18

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/fridays-national-forecast-285...

Posted on November 17, 2017 at 12:18 AM

Sub-tropical low may brush Northland but skip other regions (+4 Maps)

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Thu, 16/11/2017 - 12:24

The second large sub-tropical low in a week is moving towards New Zealand but it looks like a repeat performance with again the bulk of the wind and rain remaining out at sea. Despite the low naturally wanting to move directly down over the North Island, a blocking high over the country and the Tasman Sea will put the brakes on this low dropping too south - then it will help guide it away from New Zealand on Sunday.

The closest the centre of the low will get appears to be on Saturday PM where the chance for rain (and possible heavy falls) remains for Northland. This is different from last week, where Northland was mostly dry. Again, there is a chance this rain band my just hover offshore - but the data has been indicating for a number of days that Northand is most exposed to rain from this low - which may be welcome by many farmers and growers as the region starts to dry out in places.

Further south and - for now - Auckland and Bay of Plenty look dry with sunny spells. However showers and patchy light rain and drizzle may affect East Cape, Gisborne and potentially even Hawke's Bay.

As of Thursday morning the forecast for this weekend showed most severe weather risks were out at sea - but those in northern New Zealand should keep up to date with all forecasts, weather videos and news stories to ensure nothing changes. These 50/50 set ups can often involve an incredibly fine line of distance between heavy rain and completely dry - as we experienced last weekend.

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...
4AM SATURDAY shows an intense low just offshore, but weakening slowly as it runs into high pressure around New Zealand. 98% of the rain is offshore.

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...
4PM SATURDAY the rain clouds are over parts of Northland and the East Cape/Gisborne area. This may be as close as the rain band gets to other regions but continue to monitor our maps for the latest. Rainfall totals don't appear to be concerning at this stage.

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...
4AM SUNDAY shows most northern areas dry now.

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...
4PM SUNDAY and the high from the west is pushing in and the low to the east is falling apart. SE wind flow means a few showers in Hawke's Bay/Gisborne area, otherwise dry.

- Maps by Weathermap.co.nz
- WeatherWatch.co.nz  http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/sub-tropical-low-may-brush-northland-skip-other-regions-4-maps

Posted on November 16, 2017 at 12:56 AM

Australia: NZ's high becomes Aussie's low as wet weather dominates east coast (+9 Maps)

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Thu, 16/11/2017 - 07:53

The forecast for the eastern side of Australia looks fairly wet for the next week or two thanks to a giant high pressure system out over the Tasman Sea and New Zealand.

Next week high pressure will again dominate New Zealand and the anticyclonic winds going around the anticyclone will encourage days of easterly winds for Australia - and that means rain, showers and cloud for many days in eastern areas.

Places like the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and the Gold Coast are looking especially wet with days of showers turning to more set in, heavier, rain at times. Dry spells may well be overcast.
Further south in Sydney there are more dry and sunny spells in the mix next week but the next few days and incoming weekend all look showery or wet there too.

It's also likely that one week from now another area of low pressure will be forming in south eastern Australia with heavy downpours and thunderstorms (like we'll see over the next few days there - see below).

While high pressure may last in New Zealand for much of November, so too might the wet weather around eastern and south eastern Australia.

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...
Map Legend: http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...
- Rain map for 9 days from now shows more downpours and wet weather around E and SE Australia / Weathermap.co.nz

- Infographic Maps by The Weather Company (an IBM business & an official WeatherWatch.co.nz business partner)
- WeatherWatch.co.nz News http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/australia-nzs-high-becomes-au...

Posted on November 16, 2017 at 12:48 AM

Thursday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Thu, 16/11/2017 - 04:00

An anticyclone brings mainly settled weather to New Zealand today however unstable conditions develop for some North Island areas in the afternoon.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Sunny spells, a chance of isolated showers in the afternoon. Showers may be heavy in some areas especially southern parts of Auckland and Waikato where thunderstorms are possible then easing later in the day. Northeasterly winds.
Highs: 18-20

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Mostly sunny with light winds in the morning then afternoon westerly quarter winds. Isolated showers develop for inland areas in the afternoon, some may become heavy with thunderstorms then clearing later in the day.
Highs: 17-21

Eastern North Island
A mix of sun and cloud with east to northeasterly winds. May be an isolated shower late afternoon / evening, mainly about the ranges.
Highs: 19-20

Wellington
Mostly sunny with freshening north to northwesterly winds.
High: 18

Marlborough & Nelson
Mostly sunny with northwesterly winds for Marlborough, afternoon northerlies for Nelson.
Highs: 19-23

Canterbury
Mostly sunny with afternoon easterlies.
Highs: 18-21

West Coast
Sunny spells with west to southwesterly winds, overnight showers move into Fiordland.
Highs: 16-20

Southland & Otago
Mostly sunny, afternoon easterlies develop for coastal Otago while most other places see westerly quarter winds. Overnight a southwest change brings a few showers to Southland.
Highs: 18-24

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/thursdays-national-forecast-2...

Posted on November 16, 2017 at 12:37 AM

Dry weather may linger for some regions until the start of December

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Tue, 14/11/2017 - 14:07

After a very wet several months in many parts of the country some New Zealand regions are now facing an abrupt drying out phase with little to no rain forecast for some parts for the rest of November.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says a belt of high pressure looks "near continuous" for the next two weeks ensuring plenty of dry weather for many regions, especially the South Island and central areas to begin with.

Head forecaster Philip Duncan says while spring is known for being changeable the long term forecast sees a trend in high pressure systems. "For the next few days we'll see some big downpours popping up around the upper North Island, but they look pretty hit and miss. On Friday a weak southerly may see a few light showers in coastal Southland and Otago and this coming weekend a sub-tropical low in the north may brush northern areas with a little drizzle, rain is not yet forecast". 

Auckland, Tauranga and Hamilton are the largest centres most exposed to an afternoon downpour over the next few days. The rain forecast associated with the weekend sub-tropical low is not yet locked in, but so far it looks like most rain will fall out at sea, even more so than last weekend. One to keep watch.

Generally speaking high pressure continues to stream out of the Southern Australia area and across the South Island and much of the North Island. 

WeatherWatch.co.nz expects many regions to be drier than usual this month based on the latest information.

"Being spring means a low or rain maker can form suddenly, but the scale of these high pressure systems means some places could be in for a couple of weeks of dry to mostly dry weather".

WeatherWatch.co.nz will headline any rain events should anything change. Reliable data can see out about 10 days but even longer range models for over two weeks don't seem to be showing a great deal of change coming, indicating this pattern is with us for the remainder of November.

Maps: Top is today, November 14th, Below is two weeks from today, Nov 28th (Maps by Weathermap.co.nz)
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/sites/all/files/Screen%20Shot%202017-...

- WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/dry-weather-may-linger-some-r...

Posted on November 14, 2017 at 4:32 AM

Tuesday's national forecast

Posted by WW Forecast Team on Tue, 14/11/2017 - 04:00

An anticyclone lies over most of New Zealand today, it may become a little unstable for parts of the upper North Island this afternoon.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
A mix of sun and cloud, may be a shower about. In the afternoon / evening showers may become heavy with the low risk of a thunderstorm then clearing later on. Light winds and afternoon sea breezes.
Highs: 18-20

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Mostly sunny with east to southeasterly winds.
Highs: 18-22

Eastern North Island
A mix of sun and cloud with southerlies tending easterly in the afternoon.
Highs: 15-17

Wellington
Mostly sunny after any morning cloud clears, southeasterly winds.
High: 15

Marlborough & Nelson
Mostly sunny with east to southeasterly winds, afternoon northerlies for Nelson.
Highs: 16-17

Canterbury
Mostly sunny with light winds and afternoon sea breezes, some cloud inland about the ranges late afternoon / evening brings the risk of an isolated shower otherwise mainly dry.
Highs: 15-17

West Coast
A mix of sun and cloud, chance of an isolated shower late afternoon / evening inland about the ranges, especially Buller. Light winds and afternoon sea breezes.
Highs: 16-19

Southland & Otago
Any morning cloud clears then mostly sunny with light winds, afternoon sea breezes.
Highs: 15-23

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/tuesdays-national-forecast-24...

Posted on November 14, 2017 at 4:21 AM

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OhauitiWeather

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OhauitiWeather

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OhauitiWeather

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